Speaking about motorcycle racing, the late, great Nicky Hayden famously quipped, “That’s why we line up on Sunday, because you never know what’s going to happen.” That unpredictability is a large part of what makes racing exciting. Hardly anyone thought Hayden had a chance to become world champion as he lined up fifth on the grid in Valencia for the final MotoGP race in 2006 with the great Valentino Rossi on pole and eight points ahead of him. But he did.
Though the season is young, Monster Energy AMA Supercross is proving the truth of Hayden’s old adage. Before the season started, it seemed so simple to predict the winners. Team Honda HRC Progressive rider Jett Lawrence had won four of five potential championships since moving up the 450 class, the only exception being the outdoor Pro Motocross Championship last year, when he was hampered by a hand injury. The main topic of preseason conversation wasn’t so much whether Lawrence would win, but whether he could beat the all-time single-season Supercross wins record of 14, held jointly by Jeremy McGrath and Ricky Carmichael. Meanwhile, in the 250SX West class, surely Haiden Deegan would march to another championship, given his momentum, especially since both of the 2024 champions, R.J. Hampshire in 250SX West and Tom Vialle in 250SX East are racing in the East category this year.
After last night’s round in Tampa, less than a third of the way through the Supercross season, what everyone knew has turned out to be totally wrong, proving once again why they line up on Sunday. Or, in the case of Supercross, on Saturday night. I’m one of those who was wrong. In our annual predictions story over at Common Tread at RevZilla, I predicted Lawrence would tie, but not break, the season win record, as part of a list of racing predictions. Now with Lawrence out at least through the Supercross season due to a torn ACL in his right knee, it was clear I was wrong. He’s not going to win 14. He won one.
Red Bull KTM Factory Racing rider Chase Sexton held on to the red plate after the Tampa round but he is just one of three riders who have led the standings so far this Supercross season. KTM photo.
Even before the injury, Lawrence wasn’t looking as inevitable as many of us expected. He won just one of the first three races while the points leader red plate was being passed among Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, and Ken Roczen. Meanwhile, after the four 250 West races, Deegan has just one win and sits third in the standings, behind even Jordon Smith on the Triumph that’s just starting its second year of competition. Who called that one in advance? Nobody. Deegan now gets some time to think it over, as the action moved to the 250 East class beginning with yesterday’s Tampa race. Maybe he’ll come back stronger than ever after the break, but for now he’s looking competitive in a tight, three-way battle, not inevitable.
The brutal sport
I’ve long felt that motocross is the most brutal form of racing. You may be more likely to die in MotoGP or Superbike racing, due to the higher speeds, but a long motocross career means you certainly will be maimed. The only real questions are how many times, how badly, and whether the damage will be permanent or passing. Few riders make it very far past their 30th birthdays. One little mistake on an ordinary day at the practice track can wipe out a season. Or worse.
That’s what we saw with Lawrence, when a simple dab of the foot changed him from Supercross title favorite to surgery patient and just hoping to be back in shape in time for the outdoor Pro Motocross season. Last night at Tampa, a lot of people held their breath when title contender Tomac caught his foot on the ground during a qualifying lap and immediately pulled off in obvious pain. It looked too similar to Lawrence’s injury, not to mention the time Tomac tore his Achilles tendon a couple of years ago. An X-ray showed nothing broken, and Tomac was able to race, literally limping to the finish. The guy who was the favorite to win the race ended up 17th, two laps down.
Roczen and Sexton also faced adversity. Roczen and a lapped rider tangled, pulling the chain off Roczen’s Suzuki, throwing him to the ground and leaving him stranded. He officially finished 21st. Sexton got the holeshot and led most of the race but fell in the late laps and from there had just enough speed to hang on to fifth place. That was barely enough to keep the red plate, just five points ahead of Cooper Webb.
And that leads us to the one great feel-good story of the evening, really of the season so far. The reason Sexton fell? Arguably, it was the pressure from behind applied by Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing’s Malcolm Stewart who won his first 450 main event at the age of 32, a long-awaited victory for a former 250 Supercross champ who has also been on the receiving end of the sport’s brutality, missing a season with injury. Sweeter yet, the win came in front of his home state fans and much of his family, including his brother, James Stewart, calling the race in the NBC booth, though the thrill left James closer to speechless than verbose. “I’m so proud of that kid,” is about all the older brother could get out.
From sheer joy to the relief of finally shedding that “the guy who never won” label, a flood of emotions unleashed after Malcolm Stewart’s first win in the premier class. Feld Motor Sports photo.
What’s the point of all this? The men and women who pursue this brutal sport do it for the joy it brings, especially in those winning moments (have you ever seen a happier face than Malcolm Stewart’s at 9:50 p.m. yesterday?), despite the toll it takes on other days. As a fan, I never want to see a racer crash, much less get hurt. But that’s an unwelcome and unavoidable side effect of the unpredictability of racing.
You never know what’s going to happen. So that’s why they line up on Sunday. Or Saturday night.
It was great to see Malcolm win his first 450 it was long over due. I want to see more of Eli Tomac’s final year of racing. Eli is a true hero of the sport and I wish him all the best in his last year and his retirement life the sport will not be the same without Eli.
Fortunately, the update is that Tomac suffered a sprained ankle and bruising, so while it may hamper him for a while, he’s not going to miss a big chunk of his final season. When he pulled off the track, I think a lot of people expected the injury to be much worse.
New update: Now Yamaha is saying Tomac fractured his fibula. The man raced on a Supercross track with a broken leg. Amazing. I can barely walk a Supercross track.
Yet another bad news update: Hunter Lawrence suffered torn cartilage in his shoulder and cracks in his humerus, the upper arm bone, and will also miss the rest of the Supercross season like his brother.